But it is a racing certainty that the Labour candidate will be Andy Burnham, the current Mayor of Greater Manchester and former New Labour Cabinet minister. Having been cleared to run by the Labour leadership who had blocked his candidacy for the Gorton and Denton by-election in March in which Labour came an ignominious third behind Reform UK and the Green Party victor Hannah ‘the Plumber’ Spencer, he will be formally endorsed (if he is the sole Labour contender) by Labour’s National Executive Committee (NEC) this Thursday. He will fight a Reform UK candidate who will be emboldened by his party’s clean sweep of the local council seats that were up for contestation in the elections of 7 May and by the promise by his party leader Nigel Farage to throw everything at this election.
Should the ‘King of the North’ emerge victorious in this contest, he is widely expected to launch a bid for the leadership of the Labour Party and therefore the occupancy of 10 Downing Street as the seventh Prime Minister the UK will have had in the last decade. To many in the Labour movement who despair of the lack of direction and communicative competence of the government of the incumbent PM Sir Keir Starmer, Andy Burnham is the saviour; the knight in glistening armour who can prevent Labour from hurtling towards an extinction event at the next general election and the appalling vista of Nigel Farage becoming PM.
The Makerfield by-election will most likely be held during a major international football tournament, the World Cup, just as the EU referendum in June 2016 was held during the European Championships. Britain’s relationship with the European Union has suddenly been thrust into the contest with the declaration by another potential Labour leadership candidate Wes Streeting, who resigned as Health Secretary last week with a stinging rebuke to Starmer over his government’s lack of direction, that Britain should eventually rejoin the European Union as Brexit had been a total disaster.
The Makerfield by-election will most likely be held during a major international football tournament, the World Cup, just as the EU referendum in June 2016 was held during the European Championships. Britain’s relationship with the European Union has suddenly been thrust into the contest with the declaration by another potential Labour leadership candidate Wes Streeting, who resigned as Health Secretary last week with a stinging rebuke to Starmer over his government’s lack of direction, that Britain should eventually rejoin the European Union as Brexit had been a total disaster.
Expect the nativist nationalist fuelled Reform bile about a potential betrayal of the will of the British people over the outcome of the 2016 plebiscite, never mind that the form of Brexit the electorate was asked to vote for was never clarified and that on every available metric, Brexit has been of negative consequence for the UK. Expect also ear-splitting dog whistles about immigration and the “small boats invasion” despite the white working class monochromal demographic of Makerfield and the absence (to my knowledge) of migrant accommodation facilities in the constituency.
Do not rule out, cynical exploitation of those young working-class girls failed by local authority social service departments in the midst of the Grooming Gangs scandals which affected towns in the North West such as Rochdale and Oldham and on Burnham’s head, Reform will pin blame. It must be emphasised that on his election as Mayor in 2017, he initiated a review of historic child sex exploitation allegations in Manchester and Rochdale and later extended it to Oldham. In January 2025, he backed calls for a national public inquiry with limited scope but with the power to summon evidence.
So the Makerfield by-election looks to be one of the most consequential by-elections in British history. It has the potential to be Brexit 2.0; a prefiguration of Britain’s Trump 2.0 moment in the General Election when another leading Western leading democracy falls into the clutches of the populist far or Alt-Right when Reform UK finds itself in a position to form a government of 25% of the total vote (following on from the election of President Le Pen or Bardella in the French election of 2027 and/or the ascent of AfD into the government of Germany).
So the Makerfield by-election looks to be one of the most consequential by-elections in British history. It has the potential to be Brexit 2.0; a prefiguration of Britain’s Trump 2.0 moment in the General Election when another leading Western leading democracy falls into the clutches of the populist far or Alt-Right when Reform UK finds itself in a position to form a government of 25% of the total vote (following on from the election of President Le Pen or Bardella in the French election of 2027 and/or the ascent of AfD into the government of Germany).
It conjures up for Remainers the traumatic images on the red-shirted Vote Leave celebrations in Sunderland after it declared Out on the night of June 23, 2016, which set the pattern for the rest of the night, the stunned horror on the faces on the losing side and the triumphal Perma smirk on the visage of Farage. And that’s before we get onto the wave of hate crimes perpetrated on EU nationals, immigrants, and people of colour in the aftermath of the result. But it could be the moment that the tide turns definitively in the direction of progressives with a mandate for real change to the stagnant economy and sclerotic structures of the British state including the manifest unfairness of the First-Past-The-Post voting system and the concentration of decision making in Westminster and Whitehall.
For if his pronouncements at the Investment Summit of the North yesterday anything are to go by, then Andy Burnham is the Change candidate. Few if any Labour heavyweights these days have delivered such a coruscating denunciation of the effects of deindustrialisation on the North of England in the 1980s and the consequent hollowing out of civic and community life. He made a clarion call for change at the top of the Labour Party voicing the privately and publicly expressed opinions of many Labour members, activists, and elected representatives that the leadership is headed in the wrong direction - if indeed there is any direction of travel apart from muddling through to the next crisis.
His achievements as Mayor of Greater of Manchester represent a template for radical change on a national scale. The provision of affordable and accessible public transport through the Bee network of buses; the integration of health, well-being and social care facilities through the Live Well Service; the creation of the Greater Manchester Baccalaureate or MBacc as an alternative to university qualifications in collaboration with local and prospective businesses which he aims to be fully operational by 2030 and his aims to end the housing crisis in Greater Manchester by 2038 though focusing on affordable housing solutions exemplify the best in municipal socialism. His securing of funds for Northern communities to alleviate the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 earned him the title “King of the North” by the media. His presiding over a less restrictive regime of counter pandemic measures than national arrangements drew praise from Conservative MPs across Greater Manchester. Through working with other Mayors of differing party and ideological orientations. Andy Burnham embodies a pluralistic approach to politics which should bridge the notorious factionalism within the Labour Party.
For some Labour grandees, Wes Streeting’s call for the UK to rejoin the EU is an unwelcome intervention. Andy Burnham’s has started that he is not prepared to rerun the arguments of a decade ago, perhaps a sage course of action but the B word will be resurrected by his putative Reform opponent in the by-election. However, it has a constant elephantine presence within the Labour Party. Starmer’s red line pledges in the General Election on no return to the Single Market, Customs Union and European Court of Justice have the imprimatur of the departed Morgan MacSweeney’s Blue Labour strategy of winning back the ‘hero voters;’ the supposedly socially conservative and mainly older voters in the “Red Wall” who voted Brexit. But for those of the liberal left within Labour and without, it is arguably the biggest turn off in that it alienates the younger, professional and NGO elements of the Labour coalition. It is a sign of the return of the discussion of ideas within Labour which is so essential for its future direction and survival. The tardiness of the Starmer administration to address the effects of Brexit and to reopen any serious engagement with EU relationships is for many, symptomatic of its reluctance to take risks.
Assuming that that the pathway to Andy Burnham’s candidature in the Makerfield by-election is already a done deal, his central dilemma is to align himself more closely with the wider Labour membership, which is overwhelmingly pro-EU or voters in Makerfield, 65% of whom voted to leave in 2016 and who returned a clean slate of Reform councillors earlier this month. As a former MP for the neighbouring constituency of Leigh; he will emphasise his personal connections to and friendships in the area. He has eschewed any desire to reopen the debate and divisions of 2016 and his pitch to Labour voters that he is a real “Change” candidate; that what has gone before is insufficient and that the old ways of doing things within Labour and within national governance are redundant. At the moment, Labour is in a state of temporary stasis with the leader determined to stay put; a position which to even his loyal supporters looks increasingly untenable. One of Burnham’s allies has told the Guardian that they “would give Andy a 45% chance of winning – maybe a bit more than that.”[1] He will go into the contest defending a Labour majority of 5,539 and the entry of a Green candidate into the fray (against the advice of the former Green leader Caroline Lucas) will likely take voters from him unless progressives “game” the contest to the last vote to ensure Burnham gets over the line.
Should he not and should there be no serious challenger to Starmer, it will be après nous, le deluge.
For if his pronouncements at the Investment Summit of the North yesterday anything are to go by, then Andy Burnham is the Change candidate. Few if any Labour heavyweights these days have delivered such a coruscating denunciation of the effects of deindustrialisation on the North of England in the 1980s and the consequent hollowing out of civic and community life. He made a clarion call for change at the top of the Labour Party voicing the privately and publicly expressed opinions of many Labour members, activists, and elected representatives that the leadership is headed in the wrong direction - if indeed there is any direction of travel apart from muddling through to the next crisis.
His achievements as Mayor of Greater of Manchester represent a template for radical change on a national scale. The provision of affordable and accessible public transport through the Bee network of buses; the integration of health, well-being and social care facilities through the Live Well Service; the creation of the Greater Manchester Baccalaureate or MBacc as an alternative to university qualifications in collaboration with local and prospective businesses which he aims to be fully operational by 2030 and his aims to end the housing crisis in Greater Manchester by 2038 though focusing on affordable housing solutions exemplify the best in municipal socialism. His securing of funds for Northern communities to alleviate the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 earned him the title “King of the North” by the media. His presiding over a less restrictive regime of counter pandemic measures than national arrangements drew praise from Conservative MPs across Greater Manchester. Through working with other Mayors of differing party and ideological orientations. Andy Burnham embodies a pluralistic approach to politics which should bridge the notorious factionalism within the Labour Party.
For some Labour grandees, Wes Streeting’s call for the UK to rejoin the EU is an unwelcome intervention. Andy Burnham’s has started that he is not prepared to rerun the arguments of a decade ago, perhaps a sage course of action but the B word will be resurrected by his putative Reform opponent in the by-election. However, it has a constant elephantine presence within the Labour Party. Starmer’s red line pledges in the General Election on no return to the Single Market, Customs Union and European Court of Justice have the imprimatur of the departed Morgan MacSweeney’s Blue Labour strategy of winning back the ‘hero voters;’ the supposedly socially conservative and mainly older voters in the “Red Wall” who voted Brexit. But for those of the liberal left within Labour and without, it is arguably the biggest turn off in that it alienates the younger, professional and NGO elements of the Labour coalition. It is a sign of the return of the discussion of ideas within Labour which is so essential for its future direction and survival. The tardiness of the Starmer administration to address the effects of Brexit and to reopen any serious engagement with EU relationships is for many, symptomatic of its reluctance to take risks.
Assuming that that the pathway to Andy Burnham’s candidature in the Makerfield by-election is already a done deal, his central dilemma is to align himself more closely with the wider Labour membership, which is overwhelmingly pro-EU or voters in Makerfield, 65% of whom voted to leave in 2016 and who returned a clean slate of Reform councillors earlier this month. As a former MP for the neighbouring constituency of Leigh; he will emphasise his personal connections to and friendships in the area. He has eschewed any desire to reopen the debate and divisions of 2016 and his pitch to Labour voters that he is a real “Change” candidate; that what has gone before is insufficient and that the old ways of doing things within Labour and within national governance are redundant. At the moment, Labour is in a state of temporary stasis with the leader determined to stay put; a position which to even his loyal supporters looks increasingly untenable. One of Burnham’s allies has told the Guardian that they “would give Andy a 45% chance of winning – maybe a bit more than that.”[1] He will go into the contest defending a Labour majority of 5,539 and the entry of a Green candidate into the fray (against the advice of the former Green leader Caroline Lucas) will likely take voters from him unless progressives “game” the contest to the last vote to ensure Burnham gets over the line.
Should he not and should there be no serious challenger to Starmer, it will be après nous, le deluge.
References
[1] Kiran Stacey: 'Burnham facing ‘perilous’ race in crunch byelection. Battle for Makerfield set to be dominated by immigration and Brexit'.' The Guardian 18 May 2026 p.1
[1] Kiran Stacey: 'Burnham facing ‘perilous’ race in crunch byelection. Battle for Makerfield set to be dominated by immigration and Brexit'.' The Guardian 18 May 2026 p.1
⏩Barry Gilheany is a freelance writer, qualified counsellor and aspirant artist resident in Colchester where he took his PhD at the University of Essex. He is also a lifelong Leeds United supporter.
