On Thursday, June 18, After about a week of consultations, speculation, various and sometimes contradictory analyses from the mainstream media, Israeli media, and on social media, the US-Islamic Republic Memorandum of Understanding was finally signed electronically by Trump and Pezeshkian, the president of the Islamic Republic, it was agreed that two delegations from the US, headed by Vance, and from Iran, headed by Ghalibaf and Araghchi, would meet in Switzerland on Friday 19th for the "next phase" of negotiations. This meeting was cancelled due to Israel's failure to comply with the Memorandum of Understanding. Israel attacked southern Lebanon in violation of the signed Memorandum. The Islamic Republic also closed the Strait of Hormuz once again.
The June 19th meeting was cancelled. The dispute escalated, but finally, on Sunday, June 21, the US and Islamic Republic delegations met in Switzerland with the mediation of Qatar and Pakistan. Vance described the meeting as very positive. But the Islamic Republic has postponed the continuation of the talks until the ceasefire in Lebanon is observed, and has conditioned the opening of the Strait of Hormuz on the ceasefire in Lebanon and Iran’s exemptions from sanctions on oil exports.
Contrary to Vance’s very positive tone, Trump has threatened Iran that if it does not silence its proxies in Lebanon, the US will attack and occupy Iran even more aggressively than before. The Israeli defence minister has also announced that the Israeli army will remain in Lebanon.
With that said, this contradiction, confusion and lack of coherence begs the question: has all the fuss about the memorandum of understanding, its contents and the debate about the victorious and the defeated gone up in smoke? And will Trump’s boasting and self-glorification after signing the memorandum at a Dinner at Versailles during the G7 summit turn into the countless jokes of his presidency? Trump ensured that the document would be signed at the Palace of Versailles, where US President Wilson signed the Armistice Agreement that ended World War I. A show of grandeur and power!
This was entirely predictable, given that Israel had all along declared that it was not bound by the agreement. In recent days, we have witnessed harsh criticism of Trump and the memorandum, from some Israeli politicians and media outlets, and from sources affiliated with the Zionist billionaires who are Trump’s financial backers. On the other hand, some US politicians, including J.D. Vance and Hillary Clinton, have taken a harsh line against Israel. Publicly harsh and controversial criticism is a rare phenomenon in US-Israeli relations. It seems that a faction is forming within US ruling class that intends to throw Netanyahu under the bus and hope that all the filth and mess would go away. These events exposes the delicate and precarious situation in which the US and Israel find themselves.
Is peace possible?
Not only this memorandum, but any kind of agreement between the US and the Islamic Republic and Israel will be completely fragile. In the last two years, Israel signed a ceasefire agreement in Gaza and has not remained committed to it for a single day. It also violated the ceasefire in Lebanon. On the other hand, Trump changes his mind every day, and even the mainstream media cannot publish his promises with certainty. But a shaky peace and a cold war can be established for a period.
It must be stated that in this world full of chaos, war and destruction, talk of lasting peace is nothing more than a dream and an illusion. To achieve lasting peace, the root cause of war, killing and destruction must be addressed and eliminated. As far as the US and Israel's war against Iran is concerned, achieving peace is a very complicated matter. The problem here is that the war against Iran did not happen overnight. It has been a long-term project in the making. If we accept that the war and slaughter we are witnessing in the region is being waged with the aim of creating a new Middle East and a Greater Israel, the war will not end until this project is shelved.
Furthermore, the project to destroy and change the landscape of the region was clearly formulated and expressed by the US government in 2001 with a plan to bomb 7 countries. The details of this project have been leaked for years. Five countries, Afghanistan, Iraq, Sudan, Somalia and Libya, have been “sufficiently” ruined; Lebanon and Iran are undergoing the planned destruction and transformation. Therefore, until this vast project is completely and definitively ended or shelved, the risk of war will hang over Iran.
It is necessary to briefly look at the history of the division of the region and the formation of Israel in order to better understand the root of the problem and the main issue of the current tension and conflict. The current war is the result of a century of continuous wars. The new Middle East and Greater Israel is not a new project. It did not start on October 7, 2023. This was a project, the general plan of which was drawn after the First World War; not necessarily in these words, or in all the details. But the colonial plan of Britain and France, with the agreement of the Allies after the end of the First World War, was to divide the region in such a way that their undisputed dominance over the whole region would be maintained and consolidated. Therefore, they divided the region based on their interests and power.
The formation of Israel was put on the table very quickly. The Balfour Declaration, which gave the Zionists the opportunity and power to organise terror and war to make it possible to establish the state of Israel in 1948, was signed by Britain in 1917 and addressed to Lord Rothschild (the largest banker and one of the most important, influential and decisive Zionists in the formation of Israel). The declaration stated: “His Majesty’s Government view with favour the establishment in Palestine of a national home for the Jewish people….”
War, killing, genocide and destruction have since become an integral part of the history of the region. Since the establishment of Israel, the region has not had a peaceful day. In this sense, it can be said that the project of the new Middle East and Greater Israel has been on the table of Western imperialism for a century.
Losers and winners so far
According to friends and foes of America, Trump practically announced his defeat against the Islamic Republic by signing this memorandum. On social media, political commentators with different political tendencies are talking about Trump's defeat. The mainstream media, especially in Israel, are talking about the "high cost of a fruitless war for America."They are trying to be “politically correct” when talking about America's defeat up to this stage.
Every tendency is trying to put its political interpretation on this memorandum. But the facts are clear. America started the war with the aim of destroying Iran ("returning it to the Stone Age") and turning Iran into another Syria, in other words, balkanisation of the country which is means nothing but the implementation of a dark scenario in Iran. They explained this situation with the word "regime change". It is said that Trump/the US government thought that this would be a quick operation. The situation took a different form.
The US is in a situation where it sees the continuation of the current war as being very detrimental to its interests. That is why it has signed this memorandum. A document that practically shows that the Islamic Republic has strengthened its political position vis-à-vis the US and Israel and in the region compared to before the war. The US has agreed to lift sanctions and pay $300 billion in compensation and release Iran's frozen assets. Islamic regime has agreed to open the Strait of Hormuz which was open before the war.
But to achieve even a temporary peace, it is necessary for the US to tame Israel. Or, to be more precise, the current anti-war faction in the ruling class to tame the war-mongering faction. This is difficult to predict. The fact that their differences and disputes have become public indicates how sensitive the situation is and the impasse they currently seem to be stuck in.
It is clear that we and all freedom-loving and conscientious people want an immediate end to the war. The war has brought incredible hardship and misery to the people. Poverty is rampant on an incredible scale. Millions of workers have been made unemployed. The scarcities of food, medicine, and essentials, along with skyrocketing prices, have made people's lives a hundred times more difficult and arduous than before. This war has brought nothing but poverty, misery, death and destruction, to the people. The war has greatly increased the regime's repressive power and has changed the balance of power between the regime and the people to the detriment of the people. This war must be stopped.
If the war is considered a great disaster for the people and society, it has been a blessing for the Islamic Republic. Israel and America (the Mossad and CIA narrative) pushed this war forward with the promise of “freedom and progress” for the people and Iran. A scenario was written to make the war seem acceptable. A handful of mercenaries from Iranian national fascists, Kurdish and ethnic national fascists, and some so-called leftist groups that have jumped on the bandwagon of US/Israel Regime change entered the field of war propaganda.
They blew the trumpet of war in demonstrations, conferences, speeches, and radio and television interviews. They displayed heinous scenes of fascism, thuggish-ness, and unscrupulousness as mercenaries. They begged Trump and Bibi to bomb Iran. With every bomb that tore apart a child, youth, and elderly, destroyed water and electricity supplies, and the arteries of the economy and people's lives, they danced and shouted: "Tank you Trump!""Tank you BB!" and waved Israeli flags in the streets. This group is the main losers of the war so far. They have no dignity or credibility left. They are known to the people as a bunch of unscrupulous mercenaries. They are a losing card!
The bitter irony is that in his explanatory speech about the memorandum in front of millions of viewers, Trump made these mercenaries into a piece of junk. He ridiculed them and called them “stupid”. They are exploding with anger. These mercenaries, namely Iran International and other Mossad/CIA "regime change" media have acted in such a manner that will take them a long time to recover from. This is called premature death.
Society and the Islamic Republic after the War
The course of the war so far has placed the Islamic Republic in a stronger position. In practice, the assassination of the leader and a large part of the Islamic government, which was interpreted and announced as the biggest blow to the regime, led to the strengthening of its cohesion and integrity. A kind of transformation has taken within the regime. It placed power in the hands of a faction known as the "hardliner" and practically marginalized elements such as Rouhani and Zarif, the so-called state-reformist faction, and Ahmadinejad, the figures who were considered rivals to the other faction.
The conditions and results of the war weakened the people's position against the regime. The dangers and losses resulting from the war placed the people in a more precarious and fragile situation. The regime, benefitting from people’s weakened position and using the pretext of war conditions, has tightened its grip on the people's throats and imposed more severe repression on the society. This war has changed the balance of power between the people and the regime in favour of the regime.
People had succeeded in pushing the Islamic Republic back in some areas during the uprising four years ago and the subsequent struggles. The most important achievement was gained by the women's liberation movement, which effectively led to the de facto overthrow of the Islamic Hejab and sexual apartheid. This is an important socio-political and cultural achievement that should be discussed separately, but it should be noted that the Islamic Republic has not been able to regain this huge stronghold. Many reports and films from Iran cite that during the war, women were present in the streets without Hejab, and at night in many parts of Tehran, people gathered, played music, danced, and women appeared with and without Hejab.
But in other areas, the regime has succeeded in pushing back workers and protesting people. In recent years, we have witnessed many workers’ protests, where as in the current situation, the possibility of protest has become much more difficult. Reports indicate that the regime’s forces of repression are standing on street corners and attacking any kind of protest. Number of political prisoners executed has risen. In practice, the Islamic Republic has tightened its grip on people's throats.
In the absence of a progressive, powerful, socialist and organised force that can fight against American imperialism and Israel, Islamic Republic’s resistance, defence and fighting back has elevated its stature among the world, among those who oppose and are disgusted by the genocide, killing and destruction. The vast masses of people around the world, people who are fed up with the slaughter and barbarity committed by Israel*, who are also disgusted with the bullying of the US and the West worldwide; now look at the Islamic Republic with a positive view. In the absence of a progressive, leftist, organised and well-equipped power in the world, the Islamic Republic has emerged as the only force of resistance against America and Israel. The Islamic Republic has completely won the propaganda war.
Regardless of whether the obstacles to this memorandum of understanding are removed or another agreement is reached, people must maintain their awareness of the war, its dangers and protect themselves from the attacks of the Islamic Republic; A very difficult and arduous task. But this is the only way out of the limbo we are stuck in. Focusing on being prepared, vigilant, and work on maintaining solidarity and organisation are our only guarantee for getting out of the impasse that is facing us.
*According to various polls worldwide, Israel is the most despised country in the world: Europe & North America: Disapproval rates are notably high in Western Europe. 78% in Spain, 76% in the Netherlands, 73% in Germany, and 69% in the UK hold negative view of Israel. In the United States, 60% of adults hold an unfavorable view of Israel.
Asia & Middle East: 97% in Turkey, 86% in Indonesia, and 86% in Malaysia have very negative views of Israel. In Japan, 60% of the public are against Israel.
⏩ Asar Majed is the Chairperson of Organisation for Women’s Liberation.
