Of course, spokespeople will be wheeled out to champion the soundbite that Alliance is currently neutral on the constitution and the Union, and prides itself in the propaganda that it is supposedly a ‘middle of the road, centrist’ party.
Long gone are the days when if you wanted to avoid a political debate, you simply said: “I’m Alliance!” Long gone, too, is the perception - especially under the leadership of my schoolboy chum and fellow Presbyterian minister’s son Lord John Alderdice - that Alliance was a ‘soft U’ Unionist party.
In those days, Alliance’s power base was in traditionally Unionist constituencies east of the River Bann. But in the years under current boss Naomi Long, Alliance realised that if it was to become a significant third force in Northern Ireland politics behind Unionism and Nationalism, it would have to expand west of the Bann.
But therein lies the problem for Alliance. How do you ride two political horses at once who are pulling in opposite directions? How do you get moderate Unionists to vote for you thinking you are a ‘soft U’ Unionist movement, whilst at the same time convincing SDLP and Sinn Fein voters to transfer to you under the guise that you are a ‘soft R’ republican party?
It prompts the question - will the real Alliance Party please stand up? Indeed, when will moderate Unionists waken up to the reality that Alliance has hitched its caravan to the pan nationalist front of Dublin, Sinn Fein and the SDLP?
Alliance sent a clear message about its new-found republican and Left-wing roots to the pro-Union community by having Andy Burnham, the controversial Left-wing Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester as a keynote speaker at its recent conference.
The message is simple as to where Alliance - coming into the 2027 elections - now stands. Forget the ‘middle of the road’ spin. Constitutionally, Alliance has now taken over the ground once occupied by the now defunct democratic nationalist movement, the Irish Independence Party. Ideologically, it is occupying the ground once held by the now defunct Northern Ireland Labour Party. Alliance is no longer a liberal party.
Another horse Alliance seeks to ride out of its political stable is that it has become an openly environmentally friendly party in a bid to soak up the Green Party vote in Northern Ireland.
Alliance may be looking over its shoulder at the seeming resurgence of the Ulster Unionists under Jon Burrows, a trend which could see moderate Unionists who used Alliance in the past as a protest vote returning to the UUP fold.
Over the other shoulder, Alliance may be keeping an eye if the trend in mainland Britain where the Greens are having an electoral boost could make its way across the Irish Sea in time for the May 2027 showdown. Put bluntly, could Alliance be squashed electorally between a Green Party bounce and new-found UUP bounce?
Alliance also has the problem of being unable to retain its Westminster seats. It currently has only one MP - Sorcha Eastwood in the traditionally Unionist seat of Lagan Valley.
Having lived in that constituency for 28 years myself, she only won the seat because of a fairly even three-way split in Unionism and tactical voting by republicans. If Unionism can reach an accommodation on an agreed candidate, Alliance in Lagan Valley will suffer the same electoral fate as it has suffered in the past in East Belfast and North Down - losing the seat to a Unionist.
With much talk about realignment in Unionism currently taking place, Alliance must be asking itself - is there room in the pan nationalist front for a third nationalist party?
With Unionism holding discussions on transferring to one another in the May 2027 polls, can Alliance reach an accommodation with the SDLP and Sinn Fein on transfers, or has the Alliance bubble finally started to leak air at a rapid rate?
Has courting the nationalist vote west of the Bann backfired on Alliance? Is Alliance now seen as too nationalist to attract moderate pro-Union voters? And if Alliance tries to rebrand itself yet again as a ‘soft U’ Unionist party, is that the end of republican transfers from the pan nationalist front?
Whilst there has been much talk of a so-called border poll, one is not likely before May 2027. But at some point over the next several months, Alliance will have to finally come clean on where it stands on the Union.
The danger for Alliance is that this debate between the rival factions in the party - namely, the pan nationalist front element who favour Irish unity, and the traditional Lord Alderdice-style ‘soft U’ Unionists - could pull the party asunder in the same way as the Good Friday Agreement created the rival Yes and No camps in the UUP during the Lord Trimble era.
| Follow Dr John Coulter on Twitter @JohnAHCoulter John is a Director for Belfast’s Christian radio station, Sunshine 1049 FM. |
















